The Robotaxi Delusion: Why Autonomous Rides Won’t Solve Affordability
High-tech doesn’t always mean low-cost.
Last night, someone in my circle shared a post that’s becoming all too common. It reminded me of my own experience with a $150 airport ride that I recently posted about. Their situation? Struggling to find an affordable way home late at night, facing sky-high ride-hailing prices. The responses poured in—ranging from sympathy to outrage to helpful alternatives. But one recurring comment stood out: "Robotaxis will solve this problem."
Since this was a New York-based post, I couldn’t help but think of the old saying: “If you believe that, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.”
The Promise (and Reality) of Ride-Hailing
Let’s take a step back. Once upon a time, taxis were a predictable solution. Government regulations set pricing, so riders generally knew what a trip from point A to point B would cost. Surge pricing wasn’t a thing. Then came ridesharing—disruptive, convenient, and initially much cheaper than taxis. For those avoiding public transportation or living in areas where taxis were scarce, this was a game-changer.
But over time, the business model shifted. Prices began creeping up. More drivers flooded the market, yet somehow fares continued to rise. Profitability took priority over affordability. Rideshare companies fine-tuned their algorithms to maximize revenue, squeezing both customers and drivers. The initial vision of cheap, accessible transportation faded, replaced by the reality of dynamic pricing models that punished riders at peak demand hours.
Will Robotaxis Be Any Different?
If anyone thinks companies investing billions in autonomous vehicle (AV) technology will offer bargain-basement fares, they’re in for a rude awakening.
The assumption behind robotaxis being a fix for high transportation costs relies on a flawed premise—that removing human drivers will dramatically reduce fares. But let’s consider the actual costs involved:
AV Development Costs: Billions are being poured into R&D, and investors expect returns.
Fleet Maintenance: Even without drivers, vehicles require upkeep, cleaning, and refueling or recharging.
Regulatory and Insurance Costs: Autonomous vehicles introduce new liability risks that will translate into higher insurance premiums.
Operational Costs: Companies still need human oversight, customer support, and logistics teams to manage these fleets.
Companies like Waymo and Cruise aren’t spending billions on AV development to create a public service. They will charge whatever the market allows. Expect pricing models that dynamically adjust based on demand, just like Uber and Lyft today—only with fewer alternatives.
The Reality of “Personal Vehicle Autonomy”
Some suggest an alternative—personal autonomous vehicles that can earn money for their owners by ferrying passengers while they sleep. Sounds like a dream, right? Now imagine your car picks up a drunk passenger at 2 AM who vomits all over the backseat. Or, worse, it’s involved in an accident at 3 AM—are you ready to deal with the insurance and liability fallout before work the next morning?
There are practical and logistical nightmares that haven’t been solved, such as:
Cleaning and maintenance: Who handles vehicle hygiene? Will third-party services be required?
Security concerns: How do you prevent theft, vandalism, or illegal activity in personally-owned AVs?
Liability disputes: Who is responsible for damage, injury, or even fatalities when personal AVs operate independently?
Even if the technology works flawlessly (which is a big if), the human and logistical challenges are far from resolved.
The End of Private Car Ownership? Not Anytime Soon
Some industry voices claim private vehicle ownership will eventually disappear, replaced by shared autonomous fleets. While this is a theoretical possibility, I don’t see it happening in the next 25 years.
For many, owning a car represents freedom, independence, and control. Relinquishing that freedom to depend entirely on a shared fleet—especially one with questionable pricing models and availability—will be a tough sell.
Even if robotaxis technically work, their business model will determine their real-world impact. If they’re not affordable, they’re not solving the problem. Instead, they could become another luxury service for those who can afford premium convenience while leaving the rest of the population with dwindling alternatives.
The Bottom Line
Will robotaxis be part of our future? Absolutely. Will they be the cost-saving revolution people hope for? Highly unlikely.
If we’re going to solve transportation affordability, the real solution will involve expanding public transit, optimizing mobility-as-a-service models, and ensuring that competition drives prices down—not up. Betting on an autonomous utopia while ignoring today’s economic realities is wishful thinking.
Never say never—technology always surprises us—but for now, I remain skeptical. What do you think?
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